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The following index was created by Dr. Elia Kacapyr, an economics professor at Ithaca College. It is a composite indicator built on the performance of six indicators: number of jobs in Tompkins County, retail sales (adjusted for inflation), air passengers at Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, building permits issued in Tompkins County, number of home sales, and help wanted advertising. To learn more, please visit Dr. Kacapyr’s website at: |
| June 2009 The Index of Economic Activity in Tompkins County crawled upward by 0.28 percent in June to a level of 151.37 from a revised mark of 150.95 in May. Home sales and building permits showed strength. Air traffic and help wanted advertising held steady, while employment and retail sales were sluggish. Comparing this past June to June 2008, economic activity was down 0.78 percent. |
The employment sector of the Index slipped 0.19 percent in June. The number of jobs in Tompkins County fell by 100 to 64,200 on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unemployment rate was 6.8 percent. We have never experienced anything like this before in Tompkins County. Prior to the current recession, the record high was 5.7 percent unemployment in January 1992. The unemployment rate in New York State was 8.6 percent in June, compared to 9.7 percent nationally.
Retail sales in Tompkins County remained sluggish. The volume of retail sales fell 0.86 percent in June and was down 6.64 percent from last year’s level. The retail sector of the economy has shed 200 jobs since June 2008.
The number of passengers landing and taking off from Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport was up 1.56 percent in June and 39.14 percent over last year’s level. Air traffic has been resilient throughout the recession.
Residential building permits issued in Tompkins County vaulted 41.56 percent in June. Building permits have a tendency to swing widely from month to month. Compared to June 2008, building permits were up 33.33 percent.
Sales of existing homes in Tompkins County rose 12.17 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis. Compared to June 2008, home sales were down 4.00 percent. The average sale price was $214,500 compared to $215,500 a year ago. The median sale price was $185,600 compared to $181.700 a year ago.
Help wanted advertising increased 2.22 percent in June. This is a very thin silver lining for the local labor market which is experiencing an all-time high unemployment rate.
| SECTOR | Change (from MAY 2009) | Change (from JUN 2008) |
| Employment | | |
| Retail Sales | | |
| Air Passengers | | |
| Building Permits | | |
| Home Sales | | |
| Help Wanted Advertising | | |
| Index of Economic Activity | | |
0.19 %
1.56 %
Despite the record unemployment rate, the County economy displayed resilience in June with good numbers for home sales and building permits. Look for the jobs picture to darken further, even as the economy begins to expand. Employment is a lagging indicator.
| May 2009 The Index of Economic Activity in Tompkins County pared back 0.14 percent in May to a level of 151.01 from a revised mark of 151.22 in April. Air traffic and building permits showed strength, while employment, retail sales, and home sales all declined modestly. Comparing this past May to May 2008, economic activity was down 1.34 percent. |
The employment sector of the Index fell 0.37 percent in May. The number of jobs in Tompkins County fell by 200 to 64,300 on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unemployment rate stood at 5.4 percent. That compares with 3.8 percent a year ago. The unemployment rate in New York State was 8.0 percent in May, compared to 8.6 percent nationally.
Retail sales remained sluggish. The volume of retail sales fell 1.05 percent in May and was down 6.53 percent from last year’s level. Retailers in Tompkins County and across the nation suffered through a dismal holiday shopping season last December and have backpedaled ever since then.
Air traffic at Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport was up 6.08 percent in May and 32.01 percent over last year’s level. More air traffic indicates more economic activity.
Residential building permits issued in Tompkins County vaulted 41.88 percent in May. Building permits have a tendency to swing widely from month to month. Compared to May 2008, building permits were off 16.67 percent.
Sales of existing homes in Tompkins County fell 1.58 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis. Compared to May 2008, home sales were down 24.39 percent. The average sale price was $195,000 compared to $203,200 a year ago. The median sale price was $160,000 compared to $174,500 a year ago.
Help wanted advertising inched ahead 0.69 percent in May. This is a negligible change for this indicator of labor market conditions.
| SECTOR | Change (from APR 2009) | Change (from MAY 2008) |
| Employment | | |
| Retail Sales | | |
| Air Passengers | | |
| Building Permits | | |
| Home Sales | | |
| Help Wanted Advertising | | |
| Index of Economic Activity | | |
The Tompkins County economy appears to be treading water in May. At this point, holding steady should be viewed as a good thing. From its peak in February 2008, the Index of Economic Activity in Tompkins County has tumbled 3.58 percent.